cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe

van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. A strong ridge of high pressure extending to midlevels was in existence across eastern South Africa and the neighboring SWIO throughout 14–24 February (Figs. SAWB rainfall forecasts from the Eta model (using the Betts–Miller scheme) for northern South Africa have been compared with observations for February 2000 by Dyson and van Heerden (2001). This rainfall was about 70% of the average February precipitation total. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the paper. On Mauritius, the cyclone produced wind gusts of 137 km/h (85 mph), along with heavy rainfall that peaked at 405 mm (15.9 in) at Sans Souci. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. display: flex; In this study, we investigate the highly unusual evolution of TC Eline and its daughter storm across the SWIO and southern Africa, highlight the significant impacts over southern Africa, and discuss regional forecasting efforts. If a westward steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall. Hence, Eline regained tropical cyclone status on 21 February when it was located about 80% of the way across the channel (Fig. Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of southern Namibia having its wettest summer since 1976 and the third wettest of the last 50 years. Late on 22 February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the channel (Fig. Other south Indian Ocean TCs have tended to track on, or just north of, this isotherm (Jury 1993). J. Geophys. The tropical storm, named Cyclone … Figures 11a and 11b suggest that there was considerably enhanced latent heat flux into the lower atmosphere over much of southern Africa during the 2 months prior to Eline. Contour interval for (b) and (c) is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies. Despite advice from forecasters, it appears that an official storm warning was not issued by the Zimbabwean government until after ex-Eline had already impacted the eastern regions of the country. Climate, 12 , 3369–3372. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. Upper-level anticyclonic conditions (not shown) strengthened over the region, thereby facilitating ascent in the lower and middle troposphere and development of ex-Eline. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. 0000035290 00000 n The large-scale influences on the highly unusual track of Eline are considered in section 3, including that of SWIO sea surface temperature (SST) via Reynolds optimally interpolated (OI) (Reynolds and Smith 1994) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (Kummerow et al. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. For financially constrained agencies in southern Africa, developing simple CLIPER-type models (such as those in use in Mauritius) that incorporate regional and ENSO conditions available on the Internet may be more feasible. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. The UKMO global forecast model at the time of Eline had a resolution of 0.83° × 0.55° × 30 levels, or about 90 km by 60 km horizontal resolution at the equator. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. Given the relative lack of work on TCs in the region, it is important to investigate cases like Eline that have large rainfall impacts and unusual evolutions. There was Cyclone Eline in 2000, Cyclone Japhet in 2003, Cyclone Dineo in 2017 and now Cyclone Idai, all with devastating effects. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. Convection over Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of subsidence from the outflow ahead of Eline. (2002) argued that the highest TC occurrence in the SWIO is located near the region of climatological minimum in thermocline depth, where correlations of this depth with SST are greatest. Bull. Phys. Given that La Niña state and regional circulation, SST, and rainfall anomalies are available in near real time over the internet, local forecasters across the region could have been in a heightened state of alertness by January 2000. 5). Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. 334 0 obj << /Linearized 1 /O 336 /H [ 947 1137 ] /L 543003 /E 39774 /N 88 /T 536204 >> endobj xref 334 26 0000000016 00000 n Phys, 51 , 101–115. The cyclone affected the eastern and … Note that Fig. At 1200 UTC 16 February, La Réunion issued a hurricane warning as Eline neared Madagascar and predicted weakening of the system over the next 12–24 h. Six hours later the forecast indicated that Eline would make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar within 24 h, ending 1800 UTC 18 February, and would dissipate by 1200 UTC 18 February. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. 9b,c) in January and February, favoring storm genesis. Amer. Meteor. 0000002061 00000 n TRMM data suggests that this tongue was even warmer than that shown in Fig. 11c). 2) and its associated low-level moisture convergence and convection (Figs. 0000020393 00000 n Track of Eline across the south Indian Ocean and southern African mainland with its position marked at 0400 and 1600 LT during the 3 Feb–1 Mar 2000 period. From 23 –25 February 2000 Cyclone Eline hit the eastern and southern parts of Zimbabwe. Weather forecasting elsewhere in southern Africa tends to rely on European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) or UKMO products combined with manual analyses based on any available local station data, and these forecasts are not archived. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. S. Afr. 0000030655 00000 n In fact, Eline seems to have followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. Meteor. 0000024810 00000 n 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. .ajtmh_container div{ The track forecasts from La Réunion remained quite good during the 3 days that Eline was in the Mozambique Channel. Atmos. Since there is a lack of aircraft and other data, monitoring of TCs in the region is essentially based on satellite imagery. Meteor. 9b,c). Kummerow, C., , Barnes C. W. , , Kozu T. , , Shiue J. , , and Simpson J. , 1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. 0000025096 00000 n As a result of the cyclone and preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period. 6d). Positive anomalies are shaded. The latter is a model based on climatology in the application area and persistence. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. At 1000 UTC 24 February, a warning for very heavy rain over northeastern South Africa and flooding near rivers and dams was issued with moderate rain likely over the next 2 days. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. The enhanced vegetation and soil moisture over much of southern Africa implies increased latent heat flux into the atmosphere, which is conducive to local intensification of weather systems. 1996), Meteosat images obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and synoptic charts from the then South African Weather Bureau (SAWB) to analyze the penetration of Eline into southern Africa. EDITORIAL COMMENT : Cyclone Idai: Wake-up call to climate … Section 2 uses National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses (Kalnay et al. Dyson, L. L., , and van Heerden J. , 2001: The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. In February 2000, only Irene did two ascents per day (0000 and 1200 UTC), while only the 0000 UTC ascent was done at Pietersburg. Soc, 77 , 437–471. 0000015911 00000 n 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. It was the worst in half a century. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. Figure 8 shows moisture fluxes and associated convergence at 850 hPa for the 3 pentads (5-day average) up to and including the significant rainfall event of 29 February. Southern Africa is prone to devastating flood and drought episodes and pronounced climate variability on a range of scales, the coefficient of annual rainfall variation being greatest in southern Namibia. Rep. 342, 14 pp. The storm had earlier caused destruction in Mozambique A tropical storm has swept away bridges and homes in eastern Zimbabwe, killing at least 24 people, officials say. With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. Zimbabwe and Malawi. 0000003773 00000 n Zimbabwe and Malawi. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context. February 2000 will long be remembered for devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. During January and February 2000, this isotherm was more zonal in orientation across the south Indian Ocean, yet another important aspect of the SST field in early summer 2000 that influenced Eline's track westward into the southern African mainland. The cyclone affected the eastern and … Part I: Interannual composite patterns. Even fewer penetrate to any significant extent into the mainland, because of the 1–1.5-km-high interior plateau and relatively dry surface conditions over most of southern Africa. Int. %PDF-1.2 %���� 1). Stammer, D., and Coauthors, 2003: Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. 1, 2a). Large-scale circulation patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution. For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. 0000002353 00000 n J. Sci, 97 , 80–86. This section summarizes the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used. 0000015934 00000 n Vitart, F., , Anderson D. , , and Stockdale T. , 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. 0000026199 00000 n Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. At the same time, the anticyclone in the SWIO strengthened, leading to northeasterly flow of moist air at low levels over eastern South Africa and further development of the heat low to the south (Figs. 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. 4e), and this continued the next day (Fig. (2003) used NCEP reanalyses and an AGCM forced with prescribed SST to find that SWIO TCs show a more zonal track during La Niña years, which significantly increases the chance of TC landfall in Mozambique. These forecasting challenges are particularly pronounced over Namibia, where the inherent atmospheric conditions add to the difficulties. Contour interval in (a) is 1 dam and in (b) is 0.5 dam. In fact, the westward track of Eline across the Mozambique Channel corresponded to the tongue of warmest SST between Madagascar and the mainland evident in Fig. 0000002084 00000 n The 24- and 48-h forecasts for centers in northeastern South Africa were for showers and occasional rain. Although Eline occurred farther south (17°–18°S), these plots indicate (not shown) that over 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E, the thermocline was indeed deeper than the model climatology during January and early February 2000. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. Two (Danae, Filao) of the four other ex-TCs in the last 50 years that have tracked unusually far west into southern Africa also occurred during La Niña years (1976, 1988), and in both cases, warm SST anomalies near Mozambique and pronounced SWIO high pressure anomalies led to a strong westward steering current, favoring penetration. It is argued that the precursor synoptic conditions together with large-scale circulation and SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with a strengthening La Niña were highly favorable for this unusual evolution and track of Eline. For the UKMO model, the mean AT errors along Eline's track were 17, 94, and 152 km for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, respectively. Natl. 0000024787 00000 n Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in 8b), and southern Namibia was relatively dry. background: #193B7D; 4b–e, 6). The worst affected areas stretched along the border with Int. 2003). Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. 4a,b) helped sustain the landfalling Eline as it tracked farther west (e.g., Jury and Pathack 1991). 4b–g, 6b,d). Climate, 16 , 3932–3945. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. This warning remained in effect until the morning of 15 February. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. 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